Embracing Multilateralism: A U.S.-ROK Alliance for Regional Security
Author: Mel Gurtov
Pessimism pervades most discussions of the security situation in Northeast Asia, particularly on the Korean peninsula where efforts to weaken the North Korean regime and stop its nuclear weapons program have failed. This article proposes a new approach to regional and Korean security: creation of a Northeast Asia Security Dialogue Mechanism structured so as to respond to any number of disputes and issues before they reach the point of serious confrontations. Policy changes are proposed in the U.S.-South Korea alliance and by North Korea to promote agreement on a dialogue mechanism. The advantages for these parties, as well as for China, Japan, and Russia, in having a security dialogue mechanism are also discussed. North Korea’s nuclear weapons should probably not be the NEASDM’s first order of business. Rather, any of a number of other security concerns—for example, environmental protection, labor practices, and human rights—might better be addressed before tackling the most difficult issue of all.
(Pages 1 – 22)
Policy Implications of China-North Korea Relations
Author: Gordon G. Chang
Fundamental changes in the nature of politics inside China’s Communist Party are occurring at the same time the Kim-family regime is absorbed by succession politics. Specifically, we are seeing, in both states, not only transitions from one set of leaders to another but also transformations of the structures of both regimes, with the militaries of the two countries becoming more powerful. These momentous developments are happening while Beijing and Pyongyang are working out a new relationship. The result of all these realignments will, in all probability, be even greater uncertainty and much more turbulence on the Korean peninsula over the next several years. The implications will also be felt around the world as Pyongyang, with Beijing’s assistance, challenges global nonproliferation norms.
(Pages 23 – 53)
The ROK-US Cooperation for Dealing with Political Crises in North Korea
Author: Yong-Sup Han
This article offers four scenarios on how the North Korean situation might evolve following a North Korean collapse after the fall of the Kim family regime and one more scenario of North Korea’s explosion, regardless of the fate of the Kim family regime. Analysis of the possible politico-military ramifications for the Korean peninsula, Northeast Asia, and the world has been done in light of each scenario. It also contemplates the need for bilateral cooperation between South Korea and the United States in the context of North Korea’s total collapse. It argues that it is important to research thoroughly and map out comprehensively a plan on how the North Korean situation might evolve following. It contends that it is important to foster an environment in which South Korea’s goals can be successfully accomplished rather than to respond to a situation passively after it has happened. It also points out how important it is for South Korea and the United States to dissuade China from unilaterally intervening in North Korea’s political turmoil, since China’s national power and influence would grow at such a time. Other necessary political and military considerations are also contemplated in this article.
(Pages 54 – 73)
Political Dimensions of North Korea’s Third-Generation Succession and the Potential for Crisis
Author: Robert Collins
The death of Kim Jong-il leaves Northeast Asian regional actors concerned about the stability of the Kim regime and leads to questions as to Kim Jong-un’s ability to consolidate power in a party-state already threatened internally by a lack of resources and a moribund economy. Projecting the potential for crisis in the new Kim Jong-un regime centers on leadership and continuity issues. Will the North Korean power elite support Kim Jong-un to preserve a system in which members of the power elite themselves became successful? Or will domestic economic shortcomings challenge Kim Jong-un’s ability to subsidize the power elite’s lifestyle and/or the integrity of the elite-led institutions of political power? Who supports the younger Kim and how? Understanding these issues is critical to preparations by the Republic of Korea – United States Alliance as well as regional actors such as China, Russia and Japan. Kim Jong-un’s youth and political immaturity provide justified concerns for all regional stakeholders. The complexity of Kim Jong-il’s leadership style leaves his son with serious challenges in trying to duplicate a similar leadership environment. Failure to match that leadership style in the near-to-mid term is a threat to not only stability in North Korea but to Northeast Asia as well.
(Pages 74 – 114)
Kangsong Taeguk and Political Succession: Problems and Prospects
Author: Greg Scarlatoiu
To celebrate the 100th anniversary of Kim Il-sung’s birthday, the North Korean regime announced its goal of achieving “Kangsong Taeguk,” a “powerful and prosperous state,” by April 15, 2012. After the death of Kim Jong-il on December 17, 2011, the North Korean regime confirmed his son, Kim Jong-un, as leader of the country. North Korea’s 2012 New Year editorial mentioned the term “Kangsong Taeguk“ only five times, while mention of Songun, North Korea’s “military first policy,” introduced by Kim Jong-il, was used fourteen. This article explores the meaning and likelihood of North Korea’s achieving its declared goal of achieving a “powerful and prosperous state,” under circumstances defined by a highly unpredictable hereditary transmission of power. Kangsung Taeguk is to be realized through the further crystallization of perennial distinctive features of the Kim dynasty rule: its cult of personality, distorted Confucianism, a partisan guerilla tradition, and an imported socialist model.
(Pages 115 – 143)
Negotiating with South Korea and the U.S.: North Korea’s Strategy and Objectives
Author: Seongwhun Cheon
North Korea has held a representative negotiating strategy. It is basically a double-strategy whose rhetoric masks its true intentions. Under this strategy, North Korea is good at launching a charm offensive in public, and, at the same time, buying time and preparing for a war or military provocation. In the North-South Korean relations context, this double strategy can be named the digging tunnel strategy. While shaking hands with South Korea and agreeing on historically important principles for peaceful unification in the early 1970s, the North Korean leadership ordered its military to dig up an invasion route and open a secret attack corridor. For the last twenty years of nuclear negotiations, North Korea has been persistent and consistent in applying its digging tunnel strategy whenever and wherever possible. As a result, all major nuclear agreements signed in this period have been betrayed by North Korea.
(Pages 144 – 159)
Maintaining a Rogue Military: North Korea’s Military Capabilities and Strategy at the End of the Kim Jong-il Era
Author: Bruce E. Bechtol Jr.
This article will address exactly how North Korea has gradually, but quite clearly, changed the focus of its forces in order to meet the challenges of sustainment, aging equipment, and a prosperous, militarily well-equipped neighbor to the south. In addition, it addresses recent (since the mid 2000’s) advances North Korea has been able to initiate in its military forces that directly threaten the ROK-US alliance, and the ROK-US ability to defend the South Korean landmass. Finally, this article will address the (often unpredictable and often highly unusual) process of the planned hand-over of power from father to third son in Pyongyang – and how this will affect military readiness and the stability of the military command structure now that Kim Jong-il is dead.
(Pages 160 – 191)
ROK-US-Japan Naval Cooperation in the Korean Peninsula Area: Prospects for Multilateral Security Cooperation
Author: Jung Ho-Sub
A new security environment in Northeast Asia is calling for fresh thinking and changes in terms of the security policies of the Republic of Korea, the US, and Japan. Especially, a series of provocations by North Korea in 2010 and a new assertiveness manifested in the rise of China provide a rationale for closer defense cooperation among the three countries. A bolstered trilateral defense arrangement among the ROK, the US, and Japan could provide the best platform to deter further provocations from the North, and to prepare for potential instabilities in the current power succession inside North Korea. At the same time, tighter trilateral defense cooperation can deter China’s one-sided support of North Korea in its efforts to relate to future provocations by the North. It also puts indirect pressure on Beijing to hold Pyongyang accountable for its hostile actions. Given the asymmetric threats from the North, in particular, trilateral naval cooperation in the future should be focused on the following three categories: sea-borne Missile Defense (MD) and Proliferation Strategy Initiative (PSI), Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), and, Mine Warfare (MIW), and preparation for contingencies in North Korea.
(Pages 192 – 208)
Downfall of the North Korean State Economy: Losing Political Authority and Gaining Military Frailty
Author: Un-Chul Yang
North Korea operates its system based on a strict adherence to socialism and its “military-first” policy but its economy has failed. Without government subsidies, the ordinary people have no choice but indulge in illegal economic activities. Now, a portion of the economic shortages is fulfilled by private earnings in the markets. The appearance of the market is a bottom-up process rather than a top-down process engineered by the state. As the market grows, the harsh regime confronts the decreasing influence of its power. To restore the state economy, North Korea implemented currency reform. However, it failed, leading to far greater mistrust of the government by the North Korean people.
(Pages 209 – 231)
