The North Korean Military Threat in 2015: The Threat to the ROK-U.S. Alliance and Peninsula Unification
Author: Bruce E. Bechtol Jr.
North Korea’s nuclear weaponization program and its ballistic missile programs have developed compelling capabilities that can potentially threaten both the region and the United States. North Korea’s advances in maritime capabilities are important as well — including a new submarine with long-range capabilities and a developing capability to fire a ballistic missile. The North’s ground forces have not been idle during 2015, as high training levels and important initiatives in training have added to potential capabilities. Pyongyang continues to show no hesitance in using its military capabilities against the South, as indicated by violent provocations initiated during the summer of 2015.
(Pages 1 – 35)
Understanding the Nature of the North Korean Regime: A Foundation to Engagement and Coercion Discussions
Author: Tara O
When considering engagement or coercion, the objective is to offer a state carrots and sticks to modify its behavior in order to achieve the engager’s or coercer’s policy goals. The assumption is that the North Korean regime can change and adapt to changing circumstances. North Korea’s system of government controls all aspects of its society and people. One person has supreme power and provides divine guidance and demands constant idolization. The priority of this totalitarian, autocratic, cultish theocracy is the regime and its leader’s interests at the expense of the populace. Such an idea of society limits the people’s self-realization and autonomy. The North Korean regime demands that people understand their own life experience according to its official doctrine. As such, any significant reform and opening would greatly damage the foundation of the regime, which is why it cannot change significantly.
(Pages 36 – 61)
Regime Leadership and Human Rights in North Korea
Author: Robert Collins
Influencing North Korean leadership and their performance on human rights should include an understanding of how power is developed, projected and maintained within the North Korean political structure. Within that context, loyalty to the “suryong” – supreme leader – in North Korea is the most critical factor in assessing how decisions are made during policy-making. The Kim regime has hundreds of power elite and other elite that are identifiable, contribute directly to the centralization of political power, and who each individually contribute in some way to human rights denial. These elite dominate North Korea’s structure and function in policy-making and implementation.
(Pages 62 – 96)
China and the Korean Peninsula: Why the Problems?
Author: Gordon G. Chang
Relations between China and North Korea are troubled and look like they will continue to deteriorate. The deterioration is largely the result of both states going through especially turbulent leadership transitions, which are changing decades-old patterns of governance. Moreover, Chinese and North Korean foreign policy goals conflict more than before, and this ensures a continued downward spiral in ties.
(Pages 97 – 125)
Japan and Korean Unification: Ambivalence and Pragmatism – Finding the Least Bad Option
Author: James R. Kendall
This paper seeks to explore the question of the possible role of Japan in Korean unification. What do the Japanese think about Korea and Korean unification, why do they think that way, and how might it affect their security decision-making in the future? I have examined the question from a historical and cultural viewpoint, as well as a political one. We will see that the Japanese experience with Korea has certain recurring themes throughout history, and that the themes build upon one another to produce a unique Japanese view of Korea. Taking this into account, the salient characteristic of Japan’s policy toward Korean unification is pragmatism. Japan prizes stability on the peninsula and fears the possibility of a potentially hostile, possibly nuclear-armed, united country across the Korea Strait.
(Pages 126 – 155)
Korean Unification and the Financial System
Author: Bradley O. Babson
Unification of the two Koreas will require eventual integration of two very different financial systems. This paper explores issues and options for South Korea in pursuing unification from a financial perspective under both a scenario of a gradual negotiated unification process and a rapid South Korea-led unification process. In both cases, maintaining financial stability should be a guiding principle and phased integration of the two financial systems will be needed. However the strategies and priorities for action would be different in the two scenarios.
(Pages 156 – 174)
Anticipating and Preparing for the Potential Assassination of Kim Jong-Un
Author: Sungmin Cho
This paper examines the possibility of the assassination of Kim Jong-un and assesses what type of assassination has the highest probability of occurring in North Korea. Although one cannot predict when and how Kim Jong-un might be assassinated or by whom, we can still compare various types of assassinations for probabilistic analysis. I propose four types of assassination, named in reference to the historical cases that typify each: “Valkyrie,” “Brutus,” “Oswald,” and “Kim Jae-gyu.” Based upon this general typology and its application to the context of North Korea, I argue that the assassination of Kim Jong-un is more likely to be carried out by a lone assassin from the upper echelons of leadership at a private gathering than by a group of plotters during a public event.
(Pages 175 – 195)
