The Kim Jong-II Government’s Policy toward South Korea: Analysis of the June 2005 Inter-Korean Agreement
Author: Young Whan Kihl
The Kim Jong-Il Government’s policy toward South Korea is an extension not only of North-South Korea relations, especially since the historic June 2000 North-South summit meeting in Pyongyang, but also of the DPRK domestic politics of the Kim regime survival strategy. How are the domestic policy agenda of “Building the Kangsong Taeguk (Strong and Prosperous Great Power) and “the Military-First Politics,” for instance, related to the Kim Government policy and strategy toward the South? What are the implications for Pyongyang’s strategy of balancing against major powers’ competing interests and driving a wedge between Seoul and its allies in Tokyo and Washington?
(Pages 1 – 36)
South-North Korean Relations Under The Roh Moo-Hyun Government
Author: Hong Nack Kim
In his inaugural address in February 2003, President Roh Moo-Hyun declared his intention not only to retain his predecessor’s North Korea policy (the “sunshine policy”) but also to expand the scope and the content of the “sunshine policy” in order to build a “structure of peace” on the Korean Peninsula. Dubbed as the Policy for Peace and Prosperity,” it envisions three stages of development. In the first stage, South Korea seeks to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue and facilitate peace on the Korean Peninsula. In the second stage, Seoul seeks to develop further inter-Korean economic cooperation and lay the foundation for a peace regime. In the third and final stage, the policy is to launch a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.
(Pages 37 – 60)
Is the Six Party Joint Statement a Viable Roadmap or a Road to Nowhere?
Author: Larry A. Niksch
As of this writing in July 2006, North Korea is into the eighth month of its second boycott of the Six-Party nuclear talks. The first boycott lasted a year, from August 2004 to July 2005. In short, in the last 24 months of nuclear negotiations, North Korea has boycotted the negotiations for 19 of the 24 months. North Korea’s missile tests in July 2006 added a new element to Pyongyang’s refusal to agree to new Six-Party meetings. All the other governments in the talks profess a continued commitment to the negotiations. A realistic question, however, is whether this collective commitment is based on genuine expectations of substantial progress, or is it about maintaining a process, however unproductive, out of fear of unknown consequences if the talks collapse. The question is legitimate, given the fact that for most of the last two years, the diplomacy of these governments has descended to trying to influence the lowest level of North Korean diplomatic behavior: whether or not North Korea will ‘show up’ for a meeting.
(Pages 61 – 80)
Political Economy Of De-Nuclearizing North Korea
Author: Yoon-Shik Park
In July 2005, the 4th round of the Six-Party talks on the North Korean nuclear weapons program finally resumed in Beijing, China, but no one can tell the outcome of the talks that are intended to verifiably dismantle the nuclear weapons program of North Korea. It is difficult at this stage for outsiders to know why the North Korean regime reversed its previous insistence that it had chosen to become a nuclear power and would no longer bargain over it. However, it is clear that any breakthrough at the talks will be critically connected to both massive economic aid and security guarantees from the West. Without outside assistance, North Korea has no hope of achieving economic development and overcoming widespread economic hardship. Furthermore, North Korean de-nuclearization is important to the South Korean economy as well.
(Pages 81 – 100)
The Proposed South Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA): Problems and Prospects
Authors: Bill Cooper and Mark Manyin
On February 2, 2006, United States Trade Representative (USTR) Robert Portman and South Korean Trade Minister Kim Hyun-chong announced their two countries’ intention to negotiate a free trade agreement (FTA). The announcement came after many years of official and unofficial discussions of the feasibility of concluding an FTA. The climate for launching the negotiations improved following South Korea’s willingness to address four areas of concern to the United States: beef, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and screen quotas. (Screen quotas limit the amount of screen time that foreign films can be shown.)
(Pages 101 – 138)
China’s Rise in Asia and South Korea: A Test Case for the Purported China-Centered Order Marginalizing the United States in Asia
Author: Robert Sutter
This article assesses recent developments and the current state of play in China’s relations with South Korea in order to test the widely publicized proposition that China’s rise in Asia is being accompanied by an emerging China-centered regional order that is marginalizing the influence of the previous regional leader, the United States. A careful analysis of China’s relations with its various neighboring countries in recent years shows that China has made the most significant gains in relations with South Korea, and these gains have coincided with a decline in U.S. influence in South Korea brought on by major difficulties in the South Korean-U.S. alliance relationship. Thus, if China’s rise is leading to a China-centered order in Asia that marginalizes the influence of the United States, the trends in the South Korea-China relationship in the context of South Korean-U.S. developments should provide important evidence and indicators.
(Pages 139 – 156)
U.S. Tax Reform and Its Implications for Korea
Author: Kiwon Kang
In a globalized economy, resources like labor and capital tend to move their locations across borders in order to reduce their tax burden. As the world economy becomes increasingly integrated, the mobility of resources gradually increases. Increased mobility causes authorities to drive tax reform in each country, so they can prevent internal resources from flowing abroad and, ultimately, secure sovereignty of taxation. Consequently, one country’s tax policy affects the economy of other nations. Tax policy under a global environment is primarily aimed at helping a country strengthen its competitiveness. Capital outflow hurts competitiveness, since it downsizes the scale of the economy, and eventually counteracts the growth of the domestic economy.
(Pages 157 – 178)
